What to expect from the Apple tablet, and why it will fail

What to Expect:

- 8-10 inch touchscreen
- Passive touch technologies in the screen, like a large capacitive screen on a phone
- Runs a modified version of the software that is present on the iPhone
- Emphasis on reading books and games
- Partnerships for book delivery from certain publishers
- 800-ish dollar price tag
- WIFI and a cellular connection provided somehow

Why it will fail:

An Apple tablet that follows the above formula is doomed to failure. And, if the current indicators are to be believed, it looks like we are looking at another AppleTV.

Let me start with the fact that this device is positioning itself in-between the iPhone and the Macbook. The issue with this positioning is that the above-mentioned tablet performs all the functions that you iPhone does (minus the phone) and really only shows any value in large screen applications like reading apps. On the other end, it doesn't perform half the functions of the base-line Macbook. But, it is going to be priced similarly to the Macbook. If you have a device that you need a bag to carry around, and you aren't going to be able to do half the things that your Macbook can do (for around the same price) why don't you just get a fucking Macbook?

Ok, so if Apple pulls a switch-a-roo and it ends up that they have adapted OSX in its desktop form to a tablet platform, it still has an uphill battle to overcome. That kind of experience needs handwriting recognition, and on an enlarged cellphone screen you aren't going to get a premium handwriting experience. Having owned tablets I can tell you that the only way that you can get a good handwriting experience is with an active touch screen, which will NOT be present in the tablet because it would make it considerably thicker. Remember, Apple is all about form over function. The tablet screen will have issues with interference when writing on the screen and wresting your wrist on the tablet. Apple also doesn't have any experience with handwriting recognition, and I highly doubt that they could write their own handwriting recognition engine in the time that they have been working on the tablet.

On the other hand, they could surprise us and it could be a device that is targeted at basic functions like e-mail, media, reading, etc. Basically, positioning itself in the same place that netbooks tried to position themselves against laptops. This may seem like a good idea for Apple, which has a platform where no device fills this area, but they would seem to not realize that that area is filled on every other platform, and very few people are living in a purely Apple ecosystem. Also, nobody except the fanatical are going to purchase a "netbook" that costs as much as a laptop and does so little.

Basically, Apple ends up with a device that is either an overgrown and over-expensive iPod, or and under capable and equally-as-expensive Macbook.

To touch on the other points, if they put an emphasis on games, them they will run into the issue where the device is so large that they might as well just use a laptop because it will have better games and it has better hardware. If they decide to put an emphasis on books, then they will run into the problem where someone can decide to get this device or get a kindle, and believe me, the Kindle will win every time because there is a 500 dollar difference.

So, in closing, when you are on the internet and people are talking about how whatever Apple announces tomorrow will revolutionize the way that people look at tablets, just remember that they said the exact same thing about the AppleTV. But, the Apple TV ended up being too expensive and and did too little to be a viable solution. It looks like, if Apple releases something that looks like what I described above, it will just end up falling into obscurity.